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A small cohort of global steel producers has emerged as unlikely winners from Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs, as the US president expands his trade war in an attempt to protect US manufacturing industries.
US steel prices have soared since Trump floated the prospect of a 25 per cent tax on imports of steel — a key component for the auto, construction and packaging industries — from all trading partners.
The tariffs came into force on Wednesday, although Trump retreated from a briefly touted proposals for an additional 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada.
The higher tariffs are designed to be a boon for struggling US steelmakers, which have been hit by low demand and high inflation. “The one thing we do know is that the winners in the short-term are the US producers,” said James Campbell, head of finished steel analysis at consultancy CRU.
But a crop of European and Asian manufacturers with large footprints in America also stand to benefit from the levies. Overseas companies with US manufacturing facilities that could benefit include Australia’s BlueScope and Japan’s Yamato Kogyo.
Shares in BlueScope, which generates almost half of its profit in the US and owns the North Star steel mill in Ohio, are up more than 20 per cent since the start of 2025.
The share price of Yamato Kogyo, which produces steel through its local joint venture with North Carolina-based Nucor, has rallied 5 per cent this year as steel tariffs have given it a boost against Chinese competition.
“Imposing this 25 per cent tariff means competition in the local market with imported material will be eased,” president of Yamato Kogyo Mikio Kobayashi told the Financial Times.
Other European players with US operations such as Sweden’s SSAB and Spain’s Acerinox, which manufactures steel alloys and stainless steel products, would benefit, said Boris Bourdet, analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris. Germany-listed Kloeckner, a steel distributor with a majority of its operations located in the US, could also emerge as a winner.
Shares in US steel producers rose on Tuesday, even as Trump’s tariff war with Canada rattled equity markets.
The large US producers, notably Nucor and US Steel, have rallied more than 10 per cent this year — a sharp turnaround for an industry that has suffered its worst year since Trump’s first term as earnings suffered amid weak demand.
Philip Bell, president of US trade group the Steel Manufacturers Association, welcomed the tariffs, saying they would “correct the mistakes” of previous duties. During Trump’s first term and subsequently under then-president Joe Biden the US negotiated exemptions for important trading partners as well as individual companies.
The US steel industry had been “subject to a lot of unfairly traded steel” and the recent rise in prices should be seen more as a “normalisation”, Bell said.
The potential winners’ fortunes contrast with the expected negative impact on other steelmakers.
S&P Global Ratings said the tariffs would be “particularly painful” for Korean steelmakers, which had benefited from relatively generous tariff-free quotas, although rising US steel prices could soften the blow.
ArcelorMittal, the world’s second-biggest player, operates a joint venture in the US but has significant production in Mexico and Canada.
The group’s Canadian operation is a critical supplier to the US automotive sector, while its American facilities use semi-finished steel products from Mexico.
Genuino Christino, ArcelorMittal’s chief financial officer, last month played down the likely impact. The company, he said, took a hit of about $100mn a quarter in 2018. Those higher costs, however, were offset by higher prices.
Mills in Turkey also stood to gain, said Colin Richardson, head of steel at price reporting agency Argus Media.
With the US getting rid of all exemptions, imports from groups such as Çolakoğlu, Tosyali and Erdmir would now compete on a level playing field with European rivals that had benefited from carve-outs, he said, noting shipments from Turkey had started to rise in the past two weeks.
Despite the fair wind for parts of the steel industry, economists have warned higher metals prices will raise production costs for manufacturing industries such as automotive and could stoke inflation in the US.
The tariffs, Bourdet said, were “really intended for China” and could be a trigger to reduce the global oversupply from that country. “With tariffs all over the planet it will become less easy for China to export steel,” he said.
