In search of certainty, markets find volatility

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Fed might force hand of global banks
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Wednesday indication that it’s expecting fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously projected threw markets into turmoil and boosted the strength of the dollar. Global central banks insist their monetary policy is independent of the Fed, but such currency moves could force them to act.

Markets fall but Dow snaps losing streak
On Thursday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell marginally, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a tiny gain to break its losing streak. Asia-Pacific markets dropped on Friday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.24% to a three-month intraday low before recovering some losses. Chinese and Japanese markets fell on the release of separate economic data from both countries’ agencies.

Interest rate and inflation updates
The People’s Bank of China on Friday left its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, Japan’s “core-core” inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy — and is tracked by the Bank of Japan — rose to 2.4% in November. That figure is the highest since April.

Partial shutdown of U.S. government?
A House Republican bill to fund the government for three months and suspend the debt ceiling for two years failed to pass on Thursday night. Thirty-eight Republicans joined most Democrats to vote against the deal, which was endorsed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Without a deal and legislation passed, a partial shutdown of the U.S. government is set to begin late Friday night.

[PRO] A ‘back up the truck’ moment
The S&P 500 tanked on Wednesday and continued to fall slightly on Thursday. But this is a “back up the truck” moment, said Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors’ head of research. This suggests that now is, contrarily, a good time to buy stocks. These are the trends Lee’s looking at that support his hypothesis.

If we adopt an objective eye, the major U.S. benchmarks didn’t change much during Thursday’s trading session.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.09% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.10%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.04%.

But when seen against the context of Wednesday’s market rout, the direction of those shifts also gives an indication, however faint, of the narrative animating the markets.

To rephrase the stock market on Thursday in such terms: Stocks mostly continued sliding after the Fed unleashed its projections, but the Dow finally broke its 10-day losing streak.

It’s kind of a mixed bag. Should investors continue treading with caution because of the downward trend? Or should they see the Dow’s breakthrough as a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel?

As with all things in the markets, there aren’t any clear answers. The only thing that’s more certain is that data points, such as today’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index for November, will sway the markets more forcefully than before.

“Whatever the reaction is going to be, it’s probably going to be more severe one way or the other than it would have been prior to seeing the Fed really increase those expectations,” said Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, referring to the Fed’s projection that PCE will come in higher than the central bank’s 2% target.

Indeed, Wall Street’s fear gauge spiked 74% to 27.62 on Wednesday, its second-biggest jump in its history. And even though the VIX cooled off by 12.8% on Thursday, it still closed above 20 — a sign of elevated levels of fear in the market.

It’s somewhat ironic, but volatility might be the only thing that’s more certain now.

— CNBC’s Sarah Min, Sean Conlin, Brian Evans and Pia Singh contributed to this report.