The race for the World Test Championship (WTC) final is heating up as teams gear up for crucial matches. With various scenarios unfolding, each team’s path to qualification is becoming clearer. Here’s a breakdown of the current standings and potential outcomes for all contenders.
India: The Quest for Dominance
Team India currently leads the table with a points percentage of 61.11% after their recent victory over Australia. To secure their place in the final without relying on other results, they need to win at least four out of their remaining five Tests against Australia.
Scenarios for India:
- Win 4-0 or 5-0: This would elevate their percentage to 69.29% or 64.03%, respectively, guaranteeing a spot in the final.
- Win 4-1: They would finish at 64.1%, but could be overtaken by South Africa or Sri Lanka if they win their remaining matches.
- Lose 2-3 or worse: A loss would drop India’s percentage significantly, leaving them dependent on other results to qualify.
Australia: Defending Champions
Australia sits second with a percentage of 57.69% after their defeat in Perth. They face India in a critical home series and have two away Tests against Sri Lanka.
Scenarios for Australia:
- Win 5 out of 7 remaining matches: This could push their percentage to around 76.32%, ensuring qualification.
- Win the series against India 3-2: They would finish with approximately 60.53%, needing results from other matches to secure a spot.
- Lose the series against India: A significant loss could jeopardise their chances, especially if South Africa and New Zealand perform well.
South Africa: The Dark Horse
South Africa stands third with a points percentage of 54.17% and has four home Tests remaining against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Scenarios for South Africa:
- Win all four Tests: This would elevate them to 69.44%, securing their place in the final.
- Win three and draw one: They would finish at about 63.89%, still leaving room for other teams to surpass them.
- Drop points: Any losses could see them fall behind New Zealand or Sri Lanka if those teams capitalise on their opportunities.
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Sri Lanka: Rising Contenders
Sri Lanka is currently at 55.56% and faces a challenging schedule with tests against South Africa and Australia.
Scenarios for Sri Lanka:
- Win all four remaining Tests: This would boost them to 69.23%, almost guaranteeing qualification.
- Win three out of four: They could reach approximately 61.54%, still keeping them in contention but reliant on other results.
New Zealand: The Underdog
New Zealand holds a percentage of 54.55% after an impressive series win in India, with three Tests remaining against England.
Scenarios for New Zealand:
- Win all three Tests: This would elevate them to 64.29%, keeping them in the mix for qualification.
- Lose even one Test: Their percentage would drop to around 57.14%, making qualification more difficult.
Other Teams: Struggling for Relevance
Pakistan
Currently at 33.33%, Pakistan must win all four remaining Tests to reach around 52.38%, requiring many other results to go their way.
England
With a points percentage of 40.79%, England can only reach a maximum of about 48.86%, which is unlikely to secure qualification.
Bangladesh and West Indies
Both teams are far behind, with Bangladesh at 27.50% and West Indies at just 18.52%. Even winning all remaining matches will not suffice for either team to qualify.
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